Skate America Prediction

Since I started watching figure skating competitions, I found it’s fun to make predictions for the medallists every event besides enjoy watching all the performances.

It’s a game.

People always make predictions based on the past results. But this is also a skater’s mind toughness competition, besides things are often changing every season, every event, so anything can happen, Also judging system changed some parts since this season again, so it’s more difficult to predict.

I think there is always no sure prediction.

It’s just prediction.

It’s also scary to predict for my favorite skater Johnny Weir since I seriously wish him to be on the top of the podium every event from bottom of my heart. I get so nervous whenever he is at COP.

And from my analysis , when many people were expecting him to win, it didn’t happen.

Now I feel more scary since I saw many people are predicting him to win.

So I try not to think about it.
Here is the list of skaters for Skate America,

Men

1. Ian MARTINEZ CAN
2. Igor MACYPURA SVK
3. Shawn SAWYER CAN
4. Alexander USPENSKI RUS
5. Adrian SCHULTHEISS SWE
6. Takahiko KOZUKA JPN
7. Kevin REYNOLDS CAN
8. Adam RIPPON USA
9. Evan LYSACEK USA
10. Johnny WEIR USA

Several skaters seems like got injuries and was replaced by another skaters.
Seems like Kevin Van Der Perren also has withdrawn from SA , and it might be too late to assign a replacement, so total of the contenders will be 10 ?

And Adrian SCHULTHEISS from Sweden is also having injury and will challenge to compete.

Johnny will skate last, right after Evan.

Again !!!

I can only predict ,

1 or 2 will be Evan Lysacek or Johnny Weir
3. Takehiko Kozuka
4. Adam Rippon or Shawn SAWYER
5. or 6. Alexander USPENSKI (RUS)

I’ve read Evan Lysacek’s most recent article and since he started leaning from Tarasova in Russia, he also took a ballet lesson over there.

It means, he learned at least basic of ballet position in Russia ?

And Johnny’s information is

Coach: Galina Zmievskaya, Viktor Petrenko

Choreographer: Denis Petukhov, Faye Kitarieva, Nina Petrenko,

SP: "On the Wings of Time" by Saint-Preux

LP: "Notre Dame de Paris" music from French-Canadian musical

There was no group competitions before Grand Prix Series this season like last season, so this competition is the fist time to see his new programs.

My feeling is mixed up, I’m very excited to see his new programs and his new costumes , also I feel very nervous to see how he skates in it.

His training has been going well according to his last interview, so I’m not worry about that part, only his mind-setting in those days SP and FP.

I will not be able to relax until finished FP.

Galina is always a great motivator for him during competition, so I just trust her and him. I wonder what is his plan for jumps.

My guess is he won’t do quad in his SP. But… in FP ?

What about his plan for his combination jumps ?

Evan Lysacek

Coach: Frank Carroll
Choreographer: Tatiana Tarasova

SP: Bolero by Maurice Ravel

LP: Rhapsody in Blue by George Gershwin

This sounds new challenge for him. It will be interesting to see how Tarasova choreographed his programs, and taught him his artistry.

Taking ballet class is good for him, since his arm movements were often unbalanced, especially at straight line footwork part. His hands were never artistic.

This FP music sounds more of lyrics style, and need to show deep emotion and natural expression.

I can only imagine his Ave Maria Gala number for lyrics style but his choreography in it was same as his Carmen, so I was not really impressed for it. But I’m sure Tarasova ‘s choreography will be different.

For technically, I wonder if he is planning to do 4-3 or 4-2 in his both programs same as last season ?

His strongest part I think is his stamina and energy. With this judging system, he can handle to do two combination jumps including 3-3 combo after half way is very strong.

Takehiko Kozuka

Coach: Nobuo Sato Kumiko Sato, Tsuguhiko Kozuka (his father)
Choreographer: Yuko Sato

SP: Take Five by David Brubeck

LP: Romeo and Juliet (soundtrack) by Nino Rota

I‘m not so familiar with this skater, but I know he received high technical scores last worlds, and it was higher than Johnny’s TES at FP.

I feel main point of skating competition right now is technical part. Artistry is decided by judge’s subjective opinion , and there is always bias by Judges personal taste, also there is always advantage from past result.

I predict Kozuka will be on the podium. I’m also curious how he perform that jazzy music Take Five. Can he dance ??

Adam Rippon

Coach: Nikolai Morozov
Choreographer: Nikolai Morozov

SP: Storm by Vanessa Mae

LP: Send In The Clowns by various artists; I Pagliacci by by Ruggero Leoncavallo

His 3A didn’t sound ready yet, but his artistry was beautiful to watch last season. So I look forward to seeing his performances more as entertainment.

Ladies :

1 Mira LEUNG CAN
2 Yan LIU CHN
3 Susanna PÖYKIÖ FIN
4 Annette DYTRT GER
5 Valentina MARCHEI ITA
6 Miki ANDO JPN
7 Yukari NAKANO JPN
8 Yu-Na KIM KOR
9 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR
10 Rachael FLATT USA
11 Kimmie MEISSNER USA
12 Mirai NAGASU USA

and my prediction is,

1. Yu Na Kim
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Miki Ando

I’m rooting for Miki Ando.
But I think Yu Na Kim will take the gold.

I’m curious how Miki will perform her FP “Gisele “. Gisele is my favorite ballet theme, and I love the story a lot. But never seen it in figure skating.

Also she has announced to do quad every event this season.
It’s scared me and I try not to expect the quad too much.

I wonder why she always make an announcement for it ?
By telling about it to public , I imagine it makes her more pressure and nerve.

Or is it difficult to keep secret to media ?

Ray found an interesting part of Miki’s training with Morozov.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6rjlRV9nSU

He looks soooo strict to her in it, and Miki seems like was having a bad day.

Poor Miki... But lovely.

OMG, I cant believe it’s already tomorrow !

Johnny, Johnny, Johnny !

I’m already getting nervous...

Just hope he will do his best.

Go Johnny !

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